BLUFF THEORY

Today, at 8pm eastern time, Bush will address the Nation to declare that Saddam has 72 hours to leave Iraq or face war. What kind of Doric shit is that? Accoriding to CNN, there won't even be talk of disarmament. I have good reason to believe that the shinanigans of the past few weeks have been a pure show of machismo on the part of the U.S. Why else would this war be taking so long to begin? The only other possibility is that the Bush administration is trying to portray itself, in vain, as patient, in an attempt to quell public dissent. However, surely he does not think that people will be any less angry with him if he starts a war now than if he starts a war within a week; though he has been scaring the pants off of me and off of the rest of the world--that's for sure. This could only mean one of two things: either he's trying to scare the world into joining his campaign; or he has realized that this will not be possible and has now made it his business to make the world believe that the strangle hold of U.S global hegemony can only be loosened by contemptuous pity on the part of the emperors in Washington.

I'd put my money on the latter hypothesis. It is likely that our spoiled president has no choice but to see that he cannot just kill people whenever he wants--as he did in texas. In light of this, he is making himself appear unflinched by public outcries to make the U.S seem invinsible and to thus sickle over with a pale cast the political reality that warmongering will not be tolerated in a world of nuclear weapons and by a generation for whom the memory of two world wars remains strikingly vivid in the collective imagnation. According to Richard Goldstein, our president is a "neo macho man." I happpen to agree with Goldstein, and I strongly believe that there is little or no political space for this kind of warmongering in our world. Thus, Bush can only exist in our time as a pokar player; and though he has raised the stakes--I call bluff!

Let it be known that I believe that the war on Iraq will not take place. There is a good chance that Saddam will disarm before anything happens. Even if he does not, the U.S will either try to resume futile attempts at gaining public support by appealing to the U.N, or realize that its plans for a unilateral attack on Iraq are simply poliically out of reach. There is too much dissent out there, there is no way that this wil happen wthout "serious consequences" (pun inteneded) to the politial careers of those in Washington. The root of the current administration's downfall shall be its flawed vision of a world where authority is determined by money and military might alone. The world sees Bush's attitude and says 'no way': Though Bush's vision is not very far fetched, one cannot discard the historical factor of our world's taboo against warmongering, founded on the reality of nuclear weapons and on the precedence of two world wars.

The global anti-war movement is the largest ever, considering that this war has not even started. This kind of popular mobilization is unprecedented in history. Because people in security council member nations are opposed to war by huge margins, even governments for whom U.S. aide is vital have no choice but to vote 'no.' Afterall, I thought Bush said he wanted everybody to "show their cards," knowing full well that there'd be a veto. Instead, he revoked his proposal for a new U.N resolution, since there is no doubt about what those "cards" would've been. Though the powers that be will never confess that the people have prevailed, it is up to us to declare victory. The moment of victory will come when this crisis is resolved peacefully--let us not forget , no matter what they tell us, that we, and nothing else, stopped war.